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Since the conflict in Ukraine, Western military leaders have operated under the assumption that armed conflict with Vladimir Putin's Russia would eventually occur. Signs of tension are everywhere.
Us Prepares For War
Since intervening in Ukraine two years ago, Moscow has never missed an opportunity to provoke its neighbors and escalate tensions. It has repeatedly violated airspace shared by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and has concentrated forces along its western border. Russia has deepened its cyber warfare campaign by stepping up its hacking, propaganda and disinformation operations. In Estonia alone, such attacks have increased by 200% since last year.
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"We are in a war, a hybrid war, the last step before we start shooting," said a senior officer at the Multinational Corps Northeast, a NATO base in Szczecin, western Poland. "But we're ready.
At a 2014 NATO summit in Wales, the alliance began to close the large gap between slow reaction time — estimated at 30 days to mobilize forces — and Russia's ability to strike quickly. A report published by the RAND Corporation, a defense think tank, in February this year warned NATO officials that Moscow could seize the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia in just 60 hours.
Polish President Andrzej Duda recently began construction of a US missile defense base in the northern city of Redzikowo, and another is under construction in Deveselu in southern Romania.
Less than two months before this year's NATO summit in Warsaw, Polish Defense Minister Antoni Macierewicz is maneuvering to shift the alliance's center of gravity squarely to Russia's borders. According to him, the presence of Iskander-class ballistic missiles in Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave wedged between Poland and the Baltic states, is no accident. "Moscow can destroy Lithuania in an instant, but it can also target Berlin," he said.
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Polish Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski recently put it bluntly: "We saw what happened in Chechnya, Georgia and Ukraine, so what are we waiting for?"
According to an analyst at a Polish military base, the threat posed by the Iskanders is twofold: "They're short-range missiles, so they're hard to intercept, but they can still hit half of Europe."
Demands by Eastern European members to permanently station NATO troops on Russian borders could significantly worsen already sour relations with Moscow. Macierewicz and his regional counterparts believe such a move could deter Russian attacks.
The alliance is building a defense structure with a specific command and rapid response time to counter a Russian invasion.
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"NATO and its member states are increasing the number of military exercises and aerial police missions, but reaction times in the event of aggression are critical," said the chief of tactics at NATO headquarters in Poland. "Before Ukraine, our response time was 30 days, but now it is 48 hours, and we have created new force coordination units to respond quickly and prevent any attack."
If Russian troops cross the border today, 900 NATO troops and 400 tanks will be stationed within two days, and another 5,600 will be added over the next two weeks.
"I have never seen so many Russian military exercises and provocations at the same time to test our readiness," the source said. "This is an unconventional war that seeks to divide and destabilize, but our aim is to show Russian President Vladimir Putin that we are ready to respond."
At the Polish air force base in Lask, where 16 of the 48 F-16 jet fighters are based, the pilots often encounter their Russian counterparts, who fly illegally in Polish airspace. "We had 18 close encounters in two weeks, the last one was with a Sukhoi Su-27," said one pilot. "The Russian pilot smiled at me from the cockpit and tilted his plane to show how many bombs he was carrying.
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Besides the skies, there are other fronts in this new hybrid war between Russia and the West. At the Joint Forces Training Center in the northern Polish city of Bydgoszcz, soldiers from 20 nations use combat simulators, including commercially available video games, to detect potential "identities" of enemy soldiers hidden in foreign accents and clothing.
"It's a hybrid war of propaganda and manipulation of public opinion, it's an information and cyber war," says a center official. "Moscow's strategy is to divide NATO with constant provocations, by infiltrating ethnic Russians in Europe and sowing discord to show that the EU and NATO are not united or functioning."
At NATO bases in Poland and Eastern Europe, soldiers and officers are trained in the art of cyber warfare and counter-propaganda.
"Hybrid warfare is not just about soldiers posing as little green men in Crimea, it's about fake Facebook profiles and fictitious online newspapers spreading (fake) content that is then picked up by credible publications," a center official said. “And in hybrid warfare, words are the most dangerous.
Prepare For War
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Kiev is now looking at fighter jets after Germany and the US finally agreed to deploy heavy battle tanks. Who could want anything else from them? Does the West really have any choice but to ensure Russia's defeat?
Nimitz, Philippine Sea: An E/A-18G Growler fighter of the Cougars of Electronic Attack Squadron 139, launched on December 31, 2022.
PARIS - There is a familiar circle as war tensions rise again, followed by the German and US decision to supply heavy tanks to Ukraine. Since Russia's invasion began 11 months ago, each expansion of the type of weapons supplied to Kiev has been preceded by the same reluctance and public controversy — ultimately a decision made under duress.
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This happened early in the conflict, when Central and Eastern European governments considered moving Soviet-era equipment to Ukraine; Then to the long-range artillery and rocket launchers - and then the Patriot anti-aircraft batteries.
Each time a double reluctance: fear of provocation by Moscow and involvement in a wider conflict and logistical problem.
But at every stage the Russian counterargument was quickly brushed aside. Even when Russian President Vladimir Putin says he's "not undermining," or former President Dmitry Medvedev says the patriot handouts make the West "legitimate targets." Nothing like that happened.
Each time, the evolution of the main argument conflict was from a defensive phase to an offensive phase, and then a relatively stable front line for a distance of 1000 km. Expect major attacks in the coming months as both sides hope to gain an advantage.
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A Ukrainian soldier observes a tank in the northern Donbass region of Ukraine on January 15, 2023. Edgar Gutiü©Rrez / ZUMA
Russia has mobilized 300,000 conscripts — a number that could soon grow further — and relies on steam warfare tactics. On the other hand, Ukraine depends to a large extent on the superiority of its weapons - or rather, the superiority of Western weapons, which are more sophisticated than Russian-made weapons.
The West engaged in this escalation gradually, testing Russia's response at each stage, as well as the Ukrainians' ability to use their weapons well.
In April, two months after the start of the war, the Ukrainian leader asked for "military aircraft, tanks, missiles, air defense systems, anti-tank missiles, etc." These weapons are coming to Ukraine one by one. Kiev's call was answered, albeit slowly.
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With the issue of heavy tanks now seemingly settled, the debate quickly turned to the supply of Western aircraft. Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba yesterday called for "Western fighter jets" and hinted that the Netherlands was considering sending US-made F-16s.
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Putin's victory will have serious consequences for the international balance of power - not just in Europe, but around the world.
Little by little, Ukraine is getting the sophisticated weaponry it demanded at the start of the war — an unwavering support that Russia didn't count on before the end of its occupation.
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FRANCE INTER France Inter is the main French public radio channel and part of Radio France. It is a "general purpose" station that aims to provide a complete service of news and spoken word, serious and entertaining, liberally combined with a selection of music for a wide national audience. It's a reminder that a Russian plane operating in international waters over the Baltic Sea, just days before and days after a US surveillance plane flew dangerously over international airspace, will ease tensions with Moscow, even as many hope it will. May be desire. Even if we want to
